Solo Mining Odds: Why 99.999% of Miners Never Win

The Harsh Probability Formula

Let’s take a 6 TH/s Avalon Nano as an example, against a total Bitcoin network hashrate of roughly 600 EH/s:

Your Share of Hashrate = 6 TH / 600,000,000 TH = 0.000001%

What does this mean in practice?

• Bitcoin (BTC) Yearly Chance: ~0.00035% (Expected time: 2,857 years)
• Bitcoin Cash (BCH) Yearly Chance: ~0.067% (Expected time: 15 years)

Probability Doesn’t Care About “Averages”

The theoretical numbers are terrifying, but reality is full of surprises:

• 2024: A Russian geek hit a block in 9 months.
• March 2025: A single Bitaxe Nano found a block worth over $260,000.

Think of it like flipping a coin. Theoretically, it’s 50/50, but you could flip heads 10 times in a row. Probability describes the statistical outcome of infinite repetitions, but your miner only gets “this one life.”

Solo Mining vs. Traditional Lottery

⚠️ Honest Warning: The success rate of Solo mining is still astronomically low. The moment you buy the device, you should mentally accept: “This money is already spent.”